World 'will not see significant return to coal' in 2026 – despite Iran crisis
Carbon BriefJosh Gabbatiss28 Apr 2026cc-by-nc-ndRead the original
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Carbon Brief reports analysis by the thinktank Ember concluding that the widely predicted swing back to coal following the Iran conflict and disruption of Strait of Hormuz gas shipments will be modest. Ember examined coal policy changes and market responses in 16 countries plus the 27 EU member states, together responsible for 95 percent of 2025 coal generation, and found that even a worst case would lift coal-fired output by roughly 175 terawatt-hours, or 1.8 percent, in 2026. That outcome depends on gas prices staying elevated all year and on power stations holding sufficient coal stocks. Ember's Dave Jones argues the real risk lies not in mothballed coal units restarting but in incremental gas-to-coal switching at existing plants, chiefly in China and the European Union. Data so far in 2026 shows no return to coal.
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Extract
"A much-discussed 'return to coal' by some countries in the wake of the Iran war is likely to be far more limited than thought, amounting to a global rise of no more than 1.8% in coal power output this year. The new analysis by thinktank Ember, shared exclusively with Carbon Brief, is a 'worst-case' scenario and the reality could be even lower." "Ember assessed the impact of coal policy changes and market responses across 16 countries, plus the 27 member states of the EU, which together accounted for 95% of total coal power generation in 2025. Ember concludes that these factors could increase coal use by 175 terawatt hours (TWh), or 1.8%, in 2026 compared to 2025." "This would only happen if gas prices remained very high for the rest of the year and if there were sufficient coal stocks at power plants. The real risk of higher coal burn in 2026 comes not from coal units returning…but rather from pockets of gas-to-coal switching by existing power plants, primarily in China and the EU."
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The MyGreenSuit briefing
Commentary by MyGreenSuit, not the words of Carbon Brief.
The useful thing here is what did not happen. A major gas supply shock used to be a reliable trigger for a coal rebound — that was the whole shape of 2021 and 2022. This time Ember's worst case is 1.8 percent.
The structural reason is worth stating precisely, because a triumphalist version is easy to write and wrong. It is not that coal plants have been demolished. It is that in most systems there is now enough cheap solar and wind that the marginal replacement for expensive gas is no longer coal by default. Ember are explicit that the residual risk is gas-to-coal switching at plants that already exist, mostly in China and the EU — not restarts, not new build.
Two caveats. This is a scenario, not an outcome, and it assumes gas prices hold for the rest of the year. And 1.8 percent of global coal generation is still 175 TWh, which is not nothing.
Come back to this in January against actual 2026 data. It is a testable prediction, and those are rare enough to be worth tracking.