Recent increase in N2O growth rate (2013–2023) mainly due to increase of nitrogen-fertiliser and manure use in the Northern Tropics and Southern Landmass
Geoscience Letters (Springer, Asia Oceania Geosciences Society)Prabir K. Patra and colleagues28 Apr 2026cc-byRead the original
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Patra and colleagues examine why atmospheric nitrous oxide has been rising faster. Observations show growth accelerating to 1.15 parts per billion per year in 2019 to 2023, up from 0.68 in 2001 to 2005, with the strongest signal over tropical regions and the clearest record at Hateruma, the southernmost island of Japan. Using nitrous oxide measurements from multiple international networks and the MIROC4-ACTM inversion framework, the authors attribute increased emissions over 1998 to 2023 to major Asian countries, Brazil, central and northern Africa, and the contiguous United States. Land emissions rose at a rate of 106 gigagrams of nitrogen per year per year between the 1998-2002 and 2019-2023 periods, while ocean emissions showed no significant increase. The authors link the land increase to greater nitrogen fertiliser use and manure production supporting extensive agriculture.
Contested
Extract
"Nitrous oxide (N2O) is a strong greenhouse gas that contributes significantly to global warming and causes depletion of ozone in the stratosphere. Recent observational records show an unprecedented acceleration in atmospheric N₂O growth, reaching 1.15 ppb yr−1 in 2019–2023, a significant increase compared to 0.68 ppb yr−1 in 2001–2005. This surge in growth rate is particularly pronounced over tropical regions, and has been measured most prominently at the southern-most island of Japan (Hateruma)." "Our results suggest that the major Asian countries, Brazil, Central and Northern Africa, and the Contiguous United States have increased emission sources in the recent 2.5 decades (1998–2023). Further, there has been an increase in land N2O emissions, at a rate of 106 GgN yr−1 per year during 1998–2002 to 2019–2023." "The inversion inferred trends are consistent with increased fertiliser use and manure production to support extensive agriculture, and terrestrial ecosystem model results. The emissions from oceanic regions did not show significant increases in N2O (rate: 7 ± 2 GgN yr−1 per year) in our inverse model setup. Our results underscore the importance for improved climate mitigation strategies and emissions reduction policies by increasing nitrogen-fertiliser use efficiency in agricultural land."
Geoscience Letters (Springer, Asia Oceania Geosciences Society) · cc-by · Read the original
The MyGreenSuit briefing
Commentary by MyGreenSuit, not the words of Geoscience Letters (Springer, Asia Oceania Geosciences Society).
Nitrous oxide is the greenhouse gas with no pledge, no satellite constellation, no tracker and no international framework — and its growth rate has nearly doubled since the early 2000s.
It also persists for more than a century, which puts it in a different category from methane entirely. Methane is a problem you can stop making worse within a decade. N2O is a problem you inherit.
The attribution is nitrogen fertiliser and manure, and the contiguous United States is among the regions with increased sources. That makes it a farming story, and one where the mitigation options are genuinely hard: nitrogen use efficiency, not substitution. You cannot swap fertiliser for a different fertiliser the way you can swap coal for solar.
The methodological caveat matters more than usual here. These are atmospheric inversions constrained by transport models, and the regional breakdown depends on the prior inventories fed in. The global trend is solid. The country-level attribution is softer than it looks.