Electricity Mid-Year Update 2026
International Energy Agency (IEA)23 Jul 2026cc-byRead the original
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The IEA's mid-year revision forecasts global power demand rising 3.6 percent in 2026 and 3.8 percent in 2027, up from 3 percent in 2025, taking world consumption to 30,700 TWh by 2027 from 28,600 TWh. Growth is fastest in China at a projected 5.5 percent and India rebounding to 7 percent; US demand rises close to 2 percent and the EU 2 percent. The agency expects renewables to pass coal in the global generation mix during 2026, with renewable output growing more than 8 percent and its share climbing from 33 percent to 37 percent by 2027. Solar photovoltaics add roughly 600 TWh in 2026 and overtake wind. Gas-fired generation stays broadly flat as high prices push some countries towards coal. Power-sector carbon dioxide emissions rise about 1 percent in 2026 before levelling off.
Extract
"Electricity generation from renewables is set to overtake coal-fired output in 2026, widening their share in the global electricity supply mix. After reaching near parity with coal in 2025, global generation from renewables is forecast to grow by more than 8% in 2026. Its share in the electricity generation mix is set to rise from 33% in 2025 to 37% by 2027." "Solar PV remains the largest contributor to electricity supply growth on a global basis. Output is forecast to increase by around 600 TWh in 2026, broadly matching the record annual expansion seen in 2025, with similar growth expected in 2027. As a result, solar PV is set to overtake wind power in 2026 to become the world's second-largest renewable source of electricity generation after hydropower." "Higher natural gas prices are expected to limit growth in natural gas-fired generation in 2026 while supporting increased coal-fired output. Globally, gas-fired output is forecast to remain broadly flat in 2026, which would make it the third year in the past ten without significant annual growth." "Carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions from electricity generation are expected to increase by 1% in 2026 and then plateau in 2027. The forecast rise in emissions this year comes as some countries have been switching from gas to coal for power generation amid high natural gas prices and as weather-related factors boosted coal- and oil-fired generation during the first half of the year."
International Energy Agency (IEA) · cc-by · Read the original
The MyGreenSuit briefing
Commentary by MyGreenSuit, not the words of International Energy Agency (IEA).
The headline pairing here does the work: renewables growing more than 8 percent, and power-sector emissions still rising about 1 percent. Both are true, and the gap between them is the story of this decade.
The mechanism sits in the gas paragraph. High gas prices are pushing some systems back toward coal — not new coal, just more running hours on plants that already exist. That is a far easier switch than building anything, which is why a price shock can move emissions faster in the wrong direction than a construction boom can move them in the right one.
Note also that the IEA has demand growth accelerating, 3.6 percent this year against 3 percent last. Ember's 2025 numbers showed clean build only just outrunning demand. The IEA is forecasting that the denominator gets harder.
Worth flagging what this is: a mid-year revision, not a measurement. Come back to it against Ember's next annual review before treating any of it as settled.