Electricity generation from solar could exceed coal in ERCOT for the first time in 2026
U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)13 May 2026public-domainRead the original
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The EIA forecasts that utility-scale solar will out-generate coal across the ERCOT grid on a full-year basis for the first time in 2026, producing 78 billion kilowatt-hours against coal's 60 billion. The gap widens in 2027 to 99 billion kilowatt-hours of solar versus 66 billion of coal. Solar's share of ERCOT generation rose from 4 percent to 12 percent between 2021 and 2025 while coal's fell from 19 percent to 13 percent; natural gas remained dominant at an average 44 percent. Solar had already beaten coal on a monthly basis, first in March 2025 at 4.33 against 4.16 billion kilowatt-hours. Texas is expected to host roughly 40 percent of US solar capacity additions in 2026. No new coal plants are planned in ERCOT, while demand keeps climbing from data centres, crypto mining, industry and oil and gas processing.
Extract
"In our most recent Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO), we forecast that annual electric power generation from utility-scale solar will surpass that from coal for the first time in 2026 within the electricity grid that covers most of Texas. Solar generation is expected to reach 78 billion kilowatthours (BkWh) in 2026 in the electricity grid operated by the Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT) compared with 60 BkWh for coal." "Utility-scale solar generation has been increasing steadily in ERCOT as solar capacity additions help meet rapid electricity demand growth. Although natural gas remains the dominant source of electricity generation in ERCOT, accounting for an average 44% of electricity generation from 2021 to 2025, solar's share of the generation mix has increased from 4% to 12% in those years, while coal's share has decreased from 19% to 13%." "Although we expect solar generation to exceed coal generation on an annual basis for the first time in 2026, solar exceeded coal in ERCOT on a monthly basis for the first time in March 2025, when solar generation totaled 4.33 BkWh exceeding coal's 4.16 BkWh." "In 2027, we forecast annual solar generation of 99 BkWh in ERCOT compared with 66 BkWh of annual coal generation. Meanwhile, electricity demand continues to rise in ERCOT due to increased large loads from cryptocurrency mining, data center buildout, rising industrial activity, and refining, production, and processing activities associated with oil and gas."
U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) · public-domain · Read the original
The MyGreenSuit briefing
Commentary by MyGreenSuit, not the words of U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA).
Texas has no renewable portfolio standard and no state carbon price. It is also where solar passes coal first. That is the most useful fact in this release, and it quietly settles an argument that has been running for fifteen years.
The mechanism is not policy preference, it is interconnection speed. ERCOT is its own grid, so its connection process is faster than anywhere else in the country — and speed, not subsidy, is what determined where roughly 40 percent of this year's US solar additions went. It is the enable-versus-mandate question answered by natural experiment: the jurisdiction that made building easy beat the jurisdictions that made it required.
Two caveats before over-reading it. Gas still runs this grid at around 44 percent and nothing here challenges that. And the crossover is partly coal falling rather than solar rising — coal went from 19 percent of the mix to 13 while solar went from 4 to 12.
The more interesting version of the story is that the same interconnection speed pulling solar into Texas is pulling the data centres in too, and they are now queueing for the same wires.