Analysis: China's CO2 climbs 2% in early 2026 due to 'wasted' wind and solar
Carbon BriefLauri Myllyvirta (CREA)03 Jun 2026cc-by-nc-ndRead the original
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Analysis for Carbon Brief finds China's carbon dioxide emissions from fossil fuels and industry rose about 2 percent year-on-year in the first quarter of 2026, though they remain below the early-2024 peak. Coal- and gas-fired generation increased 4 percent despite power demand growing 5.2 percent and hydropower output rising 9 percent — a combination that, given record 2025 renewables construction, should have pushed fossil generation down. The explanation offered is rising curtailment of variable renewables. Wind capacity grew 23 percent, an added 120 gigawatts, but the average capacity factor fell from 27 percent to 22 percent, leaving wind generation up only 1 percent. Solar capacity grew 33 percent while its capacity factor fell 11 percent, producing 18 percent generation growth. Had curtailment rates held at earlier levels, wind and solar could have supplied an additional 170 terawatt-hours in the quarter.
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"After falling in 2025, power generation from coal and gas increased by 4% in the first quarter of the year. Power demand grew at 5.2% and hydropower generation increased 9%. Under these circumstances, the record growth in solar and wind power capacity in 2025 should have covered demand growth and pushed fossil-power generation down." "While wind power capacity grew by 23% from the first quarter of 2025 to the same period in 2026, an increase of 120GW, the average capacity factor fell from 27% to 22%, a reduction of 18%. This implies that power generation from wind only grew 1% year-on-year. In the case of solar, capacity grew by 33%, but the average capacity factor fell by 11%, resulting in 18% growth in solar-power generation." "In total, wind and solar could have generated an extra 170TWh of electricity in the first quarter of 2026, if the rate of curtailment had not gone up in the preceding years."
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The MyGreenSuit briefing
Commentary by MyGreenSuit, not the words of Carbon Brief.
This is probably the most consequential energy chart of the year, and almost nobody outside the trade press has seen it.
China added 120 GW of wind capacity year on year — a 23 percent increase — and got 1 percent more wind electricity for it. Average capacity factors fell from 27 percent to 22 percent. Same shape in solar: 33 percent more capacity, 18 percent more generation. The gap comes to roughly 170 TWh that existed as capability and never reached a customer. More than France generated over the same quarter.
Worth being careful about what that actually proves. Falling capacity factors can mean curtailment, or siting in weaker resource areas, or connection delays, and China does not publish curtailment at a granularity that separates them. Myllyvirta attributes it mainly to curtailment. That is a well-argued judgement, not a measurement.
Even at the cautious end of the interpretation, though, the lesson holds — and it is not a Chinese lesson. Building generation has become the easy part. The binding constraint has moved to whether the wires will take it, which is the same constraint underneath every interconnection queue story in the Grid & AI beat.